More than $3 billion

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title: "More than $3 billion" claim: "It is estimated the 2026 Commonwealth Games will contribute more than $3 billion to Victoria’s economy." caption: "The benefit was a range. The slogan was a floor." status: featured example: false published: 2026-08-15T16:01:00+10:00 person: Daniel Andrews claimType: no-evidence-required year: 2022 tags: [andrews, victoria, commonwealth-games, economy, "2022"] source: url: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/regional-victoria-hosting-2026-commonwealth-games date: "2022-04-12" publisher: Premier of Victoria title: "Regional Victoria Hosting 2026 Commonwealth Games" quote: "It is estimated the 2026 Commonwealth Games will contribute more than $3 billion to Victoria’s economy" evidence: path: 2022/more-than-three-billion/source.md kind: note captured: "2026-08-14"

Premier of Victoria, 12 April 2022. Victoria is the host. The first number on the page is not the cost. It is the gift: the Games “will contribute more than $3 billion to Victoria’s economy.” Jobs before, during, after. A lasting legacy of affordable housing and world-class sports facilities.

This card files that floor. It does not file “sport never pays.”

What did have a receipt:

• Victorian Auditor-General, March 2024: the business case overstated the benefits and underestimated the costs. Around 20 per cent of the predicted benefit was avoided health costs from physical activity and civic pride. Treasury called those speculative and asked them taken out. They stayed in the ratio.
• Updated business case, March 2022: benefit–cost 0.7 to 1.6. Strip the speculative benefits and the questionable cost cuts and VAGO’s range is 0.59 to 0.95. Projects under 1.0 usually do not proceed.
• “More than $3 billion” is a one-way number. The case was a band. The low end did not get a press release.

Grammar: more than, will contribute. Logic: civic pride is not a receipt. Rhetoric: the gift first.