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Three times the cost

content/entries/three-times-the-cost.md

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title: "Three times the cost" claim: "What's become clear is that the cost of hosting these Games in 2026 is not the $2.6 billion which was budgeted and allocated." caption: "They signed the low number. They cancelled on the high one. The auditor sat in the middle." status: featured example: false published: 2026-08-15T16:02:00+10:00 person: Daniel Andrews claimType: no-evidence-required year: 2023 tags: [andrews, allan, victoria, commonwealth-games, vago, "2023"] source: url: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-18/commonwealth-games-regional-victoria-scrapped-daniel-andrews/102613718 date: "2023-07-18" publisher: ABC News title: "Commonwealth Games scrapped in regional Victoria as government redirects allocated money" quote: "What's become clear is that the cost of hosting these Games in 2026 is not the $2.6 billion which was budgeted and allocated." evidence: path: 2023/three-times-the-cost/source.md kind: note captured: "2026-08-14"

Daniel Andrews, 18 July 2023. Victoria is out. ABC: the cost “is not the $2.6 billion which was budgeted and allocated.” It is “three times the cost estimated and budgeted for last year.” At least $6 billion. In the days after, $6–7 billion.

This card files those two numbers. It does not file “they should have hosted at any price.”

What did have a receipt:

  • VAGO, March 2024: the original budget was unrealistically low. DJSIR put a high-case of $3.2 billion in front of the minister. The submission that went to government used the low-case $2.7 billion. The 2022–23 Budget printed $2.6 billion. VAGO: “unwarranted optimism bias.” At worst, “unrealistic and misleading.”
  • The $6.9 billion the government later released was “overstated and not transparent.” It stacked $2 billion of extra “cost pressures” on top of a budget that already held $1 billion of contingency for the same risks. Fairly presented: about $5.9 billion. The minister’s own July minute had said $5–6 billion.
  • ABC, same audit day. Premier Jacinta Allan, who had been minister for Games delivery: the report “confirm[s] that we made the right decision.” The auditor had just taken a billion off the slide.

Grammar: not $2.6, three times, $6–7. Logic: a best-case and a double-count are not a pair of facts. Rhetoric: what's become clear.