Capture — more than $3 billion

• Claim filed: “It is estimated the 2026 Commonwealth Games will contribute more than $3 billion to Victoria’s economy.”
• Who: Premier of Victoria / Daniel Andrews, 12 April 2022
• URL: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/regional-victoria-hosting-2026-commonwealth-games
• Date on page: 12 April 2022
• Publisher: Premier of Victoria
• Title: Regional Victoria Hosting 2026 Commonwealth Games
• Captured: 2026-08-14
• Method: saved HTML (premier-2022-04-12.html)

Verbatim (Premier release)

It is estimated the 2026 Commonwealth Games will contribute more than $3 billion to Victoria’s economy, creating more than 600 full-time equivalent jobs before the Games, 3,900 jobs during the Games and a further 3,000 jobs beyond the Closing Ceremony.

Victoria 2026 will also invest significantly in community infrastructure, including housing and world-class sports facilities. This will leave a legacy of affordable housing for the regions and modern sports infrastructure…

The other meter — VAGO

vago-withdrawal.html
https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/withdrawal-2026-commonwealth-games/
20 March 2024

• Business case underestimated costs and overstated benefits.
• ~20% of predicted benefits: avoided health costs from increased physical activity and civic pride. DTF: speculative and overstated; asked DJSIR to remove them. They stayed in the BCR.
• Updated business case (March 2022): BCR 0.7–1.6, net cost $1.5–$2.5 billion.
• VAGO: if speculative benefits and questionable cost reductions are removed, BCR 0.59 to 0.95.
• Projects with BCR below 1.0 do not usually proceed.

What this file does not do

It does not file “sport never pays.” It files a one-way “more than $3 billion” against a band that dipped under 1.