Repository file

Capture — on time, on budget

evidence/2025/on-time-on-budget/source.md

From Can’t Explain Raw capture

Capture — on time, on budget

Verbatim (ABC, same day as the IA evaluation)

Richard Willingham, 21 March 2025:

She said SRL East was running on time and on budget and that trains would be up and running in 2035.

“She” is Harriet Shing, Minister for the Suburban Rail Loop, responding to Infrastructure Australia’s evaluation.

The other meter — Infrastructure Australia

Same ABC file, quoting the IA business-case evaluation:

We have low confidence in the cost estimate for SRL East, presenting a major risk to the SRL East project, and the SRL Program as a whole.

Industry-wide cost escalation since 2020 presents further risk and uncertainty. Due to the uncertainty in the cost estimate, it is likely the economic case for SRL East and SRL North is overstated as any further increases to costs without extra benefits will reduce the benefit-cost ratio.

Crucial project delivery details related to actual costs and the funding of the project were not provided to support our evaluation, reducing our confidence that the project can be delivered as planned.

IA also recommended the proponent develop exit strategies if the project cannot be delivered.

Guardian, same day — guardian-srl-2025-03-21.html
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/21/victorian-government-urged-to-prepare-exit-strategy-for-suburban-rail-loop-as-report-finds-benefits-overstated

Repeats the “low confidence” line. The $34.5 billion figure is the 2020 price put on SRL East (Cheltenham–Box Hill). IA: that estimate is outdated and lacks detail.

IA listing page — ia-srl-east.html
https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/ipl/melbourne-suburban-rail-loop-east
(listing only; the quoted lines are in the ABC/Guardian captures of the evaluation.)

What this file does not do

It does not file “cancel the loop.” It does not file the opposition’s “fiscal time bomb.” It files the slide from a 2020 number the evaluator does not trust to a minister saying the job is on budget.