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Three times the cost
They signed the low number. They cancelled on the high one. The auditor sat in the middle.
What's become clear is that the cost of hosting these Games in 2026 is not the $2.6 billion which was budgeted and allocated.
Daniel Andrews, 18 July 2023. Victoria is out. ABC: the cost “is not the $2.6 billion which was budgeted and allocated.” It is “three times the cost estimated and budgeted for last year.” At least $6 billion. In the days after, $6–7 billion.
This card files those two numbers. It does not file “they should have hosted at any price.”
What did have a receipt:
- VAGO, March 2024: the original budget was unrealistically low. DJSIR put a high-case of $3.2 billion in front of the minister. The submission that went to government used the low-case $2.7 billion. The 2022–23 Budget printed $2.6 billion. VAGO: “unwarranted optimism bias.” At worst, “unrealistic and misleading.”
- The $6.9 billion the government later released was “overstated and not transparent.” It stacked $2 billion of extra “cost pressures” on top of a budget that already held $1 billion of contingency for the same risks. Fairly presented: about $5.9 billion. The minister’s own July minute had said $5–6 billion.
- ABC, same audit day. Premier Jacinta Allan, who had been minister for Games delivery: the report “confirm[s] that we made the right decision.” The auditor had just taken a billion off the slide.
Grammar: not $2.6, three times, $6–7. Logic: a best-case and a double-count are not a pair of facts. Rhetoric: what’s become clear.