The hall No evidence required
Two meters, one slogan
GenCost is a new-build number. The fridge is a different meter.
GenCost is clear; renewables remain the cheapest new electricity, and firming them with battery storage, transmission, hydro and a small amount of gas peaking is the best way to keep the lights on and put downward pressure on bills.
Chris Bowen, 17 December 2025, on the CSIRO GenCost report. In the same release he also said solar and wind are “the cheapest form of energy” and, separately, “they’re the cheapest.” The slide is from a new-build generation cost to downward pressure on bills. The second meter is not in the report he is holding.
This card files that slide. It does not file “renewables are a scam” and it does not file “Bowen is lying about GenCost.”
What did have a receipt:
- CSIRO GenCost 2025–26 (15 July 2026) is about the cost of building the next plant. Firmed renewables remain the lowest-cost pathway in that frame. Wholesale generation averaged about $104/MWh in 2025, down from $189 in 2022. Futures: $80–90 by 2030. CSIRO also says that by 2050 no new technology is expected under $100/MWh. That is not “bills fall forever.”
- ABS, year to June 2026: household electricity +22.4%. The ABS’s own line: largely because rebates ended. That is a price. It is not GenCost.
- AER Default Market Offer from 1 July 2026: benchmark residential prices down about 3.4–7.2% in NSW and south-east Queensland; South Australia +1.4%. Another meter, another direction.
The folk comeback — “if they were cheapest the bill would fall, the bill rose, therefore the first sentence is false” — skips the rebate cliff and the difference between LCOE and the retail tariff. Bowen’s “downward pressure on bills” skips the CPI series.
Two meters. One slogan. Open both.