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On time, on budget
The independent evaluator had low confidence in the number. The minister had high confidence in the slogan.
SRL East was running on time and on budget.
Harriet Shing, Minister for the Suburban Rail Loop, 21 March 2025. Same day Infrastructure Australia put a “major risk” sticker on Jacinta Allan’s signature tunnel. Shing’s reply: on time, on budget, trains in 2035.
This card files that slide. It does not file “cancel the loop” and it does not file the opposition’s “fiscal time bomb.”
What did have a receipt:
- SRL East (Cheltenham to Box Hill) carries a $34.5 billion price from 2020. IA: “We have low confidence in the cost estimate.” Industry-wide escalation since 2020 is a further risk. “Crucial project delivery details related to actual costs and the funding of the project were not provided.”
- The same evaluation says the economic case is likely overstated, and tells the proponent to write exit strategies if the job cannot be delivered. The Guardian ran the same lines the same day.
- “On budget” is a claim about a number. The number is the one the evaluator does not trust.
A budget is a figure you can open. A slogan is a figure you repeat. Open both.